Note: The writing of this post has been challenging because of the unpredictability of Trump’s “in the moment” trade policies. For instance, late yesterday Trump “paused’ the tariffs til March. If anything else is out of date by the time you read this – well – I tried.

The US has a $100 Billion Trade Deficit with Canada

Correction: The US has a $200 Billion Trade Deficit with Canada

Correction: The US has a $250 Billion Trade Deficit with Canada.

Correction: It’s not a trade deficit. It’s a subsidy.

Correction: This isn’t about the economy, it’s about protecting America from the flood of transients and fentanyl coming across the Canadian border.

None of that is true. But they are all things that Donald Trump has said at one time or another. Those statements are his justification for a 25% tariff on Canada which he imposed this past weekend. And the reason the numbers keeps changing is that he just made them up. He pulled them out of thin air. Like his toupee, those numbers flew from the top of his head.

This is the way Trump operates. There is no need for the truth when you’re negotiating. And in the Trump Playbook, it’s all cool because it’s part of a negotiating strategy called “anchoring.”  Here’s the rational. Throw an outrageous number out there and it suddenly becomes the baseline for negotiating, rather than any starting point based on rationality or logic. It’s classic Trump.

If you’re in the US, you might say, “Good for Trump! If it gets a better deal for us, what’s the harm?”

There’s a lot of harm – billions of dollars’ worth – on both sides of the border. And it’s all completely useless. This bogus trade war is total waste of time that impacts real people and will cause extreme financial hardship.

And it’s all because Trump doesn’t believe in the truth.

Here are the facts. The US does have a trade deficit with Canada. Last year, according to TD Economics, it was about $45 Billion dollars. And a lot of that was due to exports of crude oil to the US to be refined in US refineries. That created US jobs. If you take that out of the mix, Canada actually has a trade deficit with the US, not the other way around.

The US trades with a lot of countries. We (in Canada) are the US’s second biggest trading partner, behind China. And – given that – the imbalance is pretty minimal. If you look at China, who is the biggest trading partner, the deficit is actually about $250 billion.

Also, it’s a deficit, not a subsidy. It’s simply a difference between what was exported to Canada and what was imported. No one in the American government is writing anyone in Canada a check. Calling it a subsidy is just wrong.

And the total amount of fentanyl seized trying to get across the US/Canadian border for most of last year? About 43 pounds. Compare that to the 21,100 pounds seized coming across the Mexican border. It’s not nothing, but it’s definitely not justification for starting a trade war.

So, let’s get to the harm done by Trump’s bluster, bullying and bullshit. Given that the US and Canada are each other’s biggest export markets, our economies are intricately intertwined. Putting a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, which has been met with a retaliatory set of tariffs on US exports to Canada, is like trying to do open heart surgery with a grenade. It’s insanely stupid. Everyone in the Canadian government gets that. Most people in the US government get that. Almost every economist in the world gets that. The governors of the 36 states that have Canada as their biggest export market get that. The only one who doesn’t get it is Donald Trump.

What is also sheer insanity is the fact that when Trump pulls these numbers when he’s in front of a camera, he backs himself into a corner. If he threatens something, he loses face when he doesn’t follow through with the threat. In Canada’s case, someone obviously told him about the whole crude oil thing, because he eventually dropped that tariff to 10%, making it marginally less stupid. But otherwise, he’s ploughing ahead with a trade war for no other reason than because he made some shit up.

The US and Canada does about $1 trillion in trade. And in that total, there are millions of small businesses on both sides of the borders. They don’t have the option of looking for another market. This will put them out of business. It will tear apart families. It will inflict untold suffering. All for absolutely no reason other than that Donald Trump wanted a meaty soundbite.

We can’t accept this, because to accept it is to normalize it. This is just one example of the real harm done when a leader loses all regard for anything resembling the truth and imposes policies on an ignorant whim. That harm will cause trillions of dollars in economic damage and untold personal suffering. We all deserve better – whether we’re Canadians, Americans or any other nationality.  We must demand better.