Canada is the Canary in America’s Coal Mine

Ten years ago, I wrote a piece called “To Get the Hip is to Get What it Means to Be Canadian.” By using our national obsession with The Tragically Hip, a rock band most Americans had never heard of, I tried to pry the lid off the reticent Canadian noggin and give you a glimpse inside. I especially tried to explain our complicated relationship with America. At the time, Obama was still the president and Donald Trump had just landed the Republican nomination. If we thought it was complicated then, we blissfully had no idea what was to come.

Who did? Seriously, who could have predicted the last 10 years?

Since then, a lot has happened. But most of what I said 10 years ago still stands. It just needs an update, because now, Canada and the U.S. are actively at war. A trade war, true. But a war, nonetheless. Those are words I never thought I’d say ten years ago.

First of all, I’m happy to tell you that Canada still holds a place in our oversized and slightly frost-bitten hearts for the Tragically Hip. This weekend, Canadians got together from coast to coast to coast to watch a rebroadcast of the show I wrote about 10 years ago. The numbers were fewer, but the love was the same. The Hip’s music still touches something deep in our souls.

Also, this same past weekend, trade talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down. Prime Minister Mark Carney called negotiators back from Washington after a list of last minute, impossible demands were presented by their American counterparts. On Saturday morning, Carney delivered what was – for a politician – an unusually frank assessment of what went wrong. One phrase stood out – that when dealing with Trump’s America, we’ve learned that “it’s signature was written in pencil.”

Ouch!

10 years ago, I used an analogy to try to explain the weird mix of emotions Canadian have baked into our relationship with the US: “Living next to you is like becoming friends with the kid who lives next door and who lives in a much bigger house. One weekend, you’re invited for a sleepover. You bring your toys and pack your sleeping bag. The good news is that for breakfast, you finally get to eat all the sugared cereal your Mom would never buy for you.  The bad news is you have to give all your toys to your friend. Sure, you can still come over and play with them any time you want, but they’ll never be yours again.”

Here’s what’s changed in the past decade. Those mixed feelings from then, which included envy, some passive aggressive resentment, a genuine love and a nagging feeling that our relationship was taken for granted have now taken a much darker turn. One thing that was true then – which isn’t today – is that we trusted the U.S. We trusted you so much, we integrated our entire economy with yours. We tore down our fences, gave you the keys to both our house and garage, loaned you our car and said help yourself to anything in our fridge. You did the same. We never, ever, ever dreamed we’d have to protect ourselves from you.

It’s a stunning shock to us that this is no longer the case. It’s taking time to sink in. But it is. In a recent Pew Survey, 59% of Canadians polled identified the U.S. as the biggest threat to us. That puts you miles ahead of China (at 17%) and Russia (11%).

Your other neighbor, Mexico, is even more worried. There, 68% put the finger on the U.S. as the biggest bully on the block.

Look, I get that this may be coming as news to you. We Canadians are painfully aware that we think about you much more than you think about us. If you scanned a Canadian news site this Monday, the break down in trade talks dominated over 80% of the above the fold story headlines. On CNN, we were pushed into one tiny corner. Updates on the Iran conflict dominated most of the page.

But at least we made CNN’s home page. Fox didn’t think a massive rupture and an escalating economic war with your biggest trading partner was as newsworthy as – say – Trump waving a green flag at a Nascar race or a 69-yard field goal kick in the NFL.  

You do see where our insecurity with our relationship might come from, don’t you?

But here’s my point. You may not be paying much attention to this, but you should. Consider Canada the canary in the coal mine you’re descending into (Note: I wish this was a figure of speech, but it’s literally the truth. Trump is investing heavily in a resurgence in coal power). When your next-door neighbor and former closest friend is saying you can’t be trusted, you should maybe listen. Because it’s trust – the kind we Canadians have banked on for the past several decades – that has got you where you are. It literally put you on top of the world. It’s the currency that gave you the power your president is now flexing.

And that trust has disappeared. According to the 2025 RepCore Nations Study, The U.S.’s international reputation slipped 18 places, from 30th to 48th place, putting you squarely between Kuwait and Kazakhstan in the “weak” reputation category.

Nothing against Kazakhstan, but is that really the neighborhood you want to hang out in?

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