March 2007 Entries

The Great K-Fed Debate

My SearchInsider column last week took exception with K-Fed launching his own search engine. Actually, I take exception with the entire concept of K-Fed that but that's another point. In today's SearchInsider, David Berkowitz retorts, rebukes and refutes my negativity around all things Federline, saying that the K-Fed engine shows that search is ubiquitous, search is evolving and search shouldn't be always all business, no fun. Ultimately he says let the market decide whether a Kevin Federline engine is a good idea or not. Hard to refute that point.

Anyway, knowing David, he had a lot of fun writing the column and I certainly had fun writing the original column. The thing that amazes me is that in the past week, 40% of the total ink (or whatever the virtual variation of ink is) on SearchInsider has been devoted to the topic of Kevin Federline. Perhaps someday soon you'll be able to pick up your local copy of SearchInsider at the grocery checkout and we'll have great juicy articles about Britney's rehab and the latest alien that professes to be Elvis, living in Minot, North Dakota.

One last point though David. You quoted me as saying that I would rather wear Fiberglas underwear than use the Kevin Federline search engine. That's not actually true, I would rather wear Fiberglas underwear than attend K-Fed's birthday party. And you asked where the phrase comes from. For the life of me I can't remember where I first heard it, but I'm pretty sure it's not a Canadian thing. I tried to look it up and couldn't find any references so what the hell, let's say that I originated the saying.

Does Online Video Give Us a New User Interface?

 In Wednesday's SearchInsider, Aaron Goldman looked at video search and what's going to be required for it to truly become an interesting advertising vehicle.  Some of the speculation comes from Aaron’s musing about what might happen if Google purchased Blinkx.

To me, video search is one of the more interesting growth areas for search in the future.  Currently, there are some restrictions on video search that are imposed by the current state of technology.  Our ability to index video is restricted to the addition of metadata.  For each video clip, someone must take the time to include the tags indicating what the video is about.  As long as video search relies on this, the opportunities for advancement are extremely limited.  But right now we’re advancing on several technical fronts to be able to index content and not rely on metadata.  Several organizations, including Microsoft, are working on visual recognition algorithms that allow for true indexing of video content.  Advancements in computing horsepower will soon give us the sheer muscle required for the gargantuan indexing task.  Once we remove humans from the equation, allowing for automated indexing video content, the world of video search suddenly becomes much more promising.

When this happens, we move accessing information in a video from being a linear experience to being a nonlinear experience.  Suddenly we have random-access to information embedded within the video.  As mentioned, the technology is being developed to enable this, but the question is, will we as viewers be able to adapt to this paradigm shift?  The evolution of video has been one that is coming from a linear, storytelling experience.  Every video is generally a self-contained story with a distinct beginning, middle and end.  This is how we're used to looking at video. 

But when video search makes it possible to access information at any point in the video, how will that impact our engagement with that video?  In the last 10 years, we've seen some fairly dramatic shifts in how we assimilate written information.  We have moved from our past experience, where information was presented in very much a linear fashion in novels or books, to the way we currently assimilate information on websites.  When we interact with websites, we "berry pick", hunting in various places on the page for information cues that seemed to offer what we are looking for.  Assimilation of the written word is much more erratic experience right now.  We move in a nonlinear fashion through websites, picking up information and navigating based solely on our intent and the paths we choose for ourselves.  One of the greatest revelations in website design was that we can not restrict users to a linear progression through our site, much as we might want to control their experience.

This adaptation has happened fairly quickly on websites, but will it happen as quickly with video?  When we can search for and access information anywhere in the video, what does that do for the nature of our engagement with that video?  Certainly it opens the door to some very interesting marketing opportunities, with what I've previously described as "product placement on steroids".  The ability to click on any item in a video and instantly be connected to more information about that item creates a tremendous opportunity for advertisers.  But it also opens the potential for multiple paths through a video.  Does watching a video become more like playing a video game, where we can pursue different paths and have different experiences depending on the path we choose?  Does a travel video on Prague become an interactive virtual tour, where we choose our own path through Prague?  And is that interactive virtual tour assembled on-the-fly from dozens of different video clips? do we assemble content based on our intent with the help of our video search tool?  Do video producers take a dramatically more granular approach to producing content, leaving you to assemble the storyline from these individual bits of content, based on what you want to see?

This promises an extraordinarily rich user experience.  Consider how this might play out for an individual user.  We go to Google video search tool and search for the Loreta, one of the top tourist attractions in Prague.  We find a clip that takes us on a quick virtual tour and within the clip we could click on other things of interest.  For instance, we could climb to the top of the bell tower and take a look over Prague.  We could click on any building and if there was a video available we would be instantly transported to that building.  Or, if we choose, we could search for the nearest hotel and find the corresponding video clip.  The entire video has been indexed so no matter what we click on, our video search engine can use that to initiate a query and bring us back the resulting clips.  The clips are assembled into a virtual montage that we can navigate through depending on our interest areas.  We create a virtual version of Prague, assembled from all the video content that's available, and we can access just what we're interested in and search for any content that might be embedded into any of those individual video files.  Underneath this layer of video content there could be additional layers of functionality.  For instance you could tie it in with mapping functionality, à la Google Earth.  You could tie in Web search functionality so that you could easily click through to the relevant websites.  This could also provide access to booking engines and a number of other potential actions that we could take.

Such an experience is not that great a stretch from where we are currently at.  To see how it might play out take a look at Microsoft's PhotoSynth

PhotoSynth View of Piazza San Marco in Venice

It does just what I'm describing with video, only with pictures.  It creates a 3-D world from the thousands of pictures that have been publicly shared.  I highly recommend taking it for a spin, as it provides a fascinating look at what human computer interfaces can be.

As we start considering the possibilities for video, the problem is we're still stuck in our current paradigm of how we interact with video.  My feeling is once indexing technology allows us to truly index the content of the video, the nature of our interaction with video will completely change.  We'll take the sensory input we expect from video and extend that into our typical user experience with more types of content.  Our interfaces will be more satisfying because they will become more like real life.  They will engage more of our senses and put us into a deeper and richer virtual world.  More and more, as technology progresses, our interface with technology will start to look more like our experience with the physical world.  As this happens, we will have the ability to step from a interface that engages our senses of sight and sound into a more abstract world where we interact with written text.  The transition between these two interfaces will be seamless and we can step back and forth as we wish.

The promise of video lies not so much in taking video as we know it and bringing it online.  The promise of video is that it provides a distinctly different user experience which could prove to be the new interface to technology.  But to make this happen we have to be able to index and search for the content that lies embedded within video.  We have to be able to take that video content and manipulate and mold it into a virtual world that we can interact with.  And that is the promise that lies within the next-generation video search.

The Bleeding Obvious File: Advertising Leads to Increased Search Volumes

Holy crap, it's official! There is a link between advertising and the volume of searches. We now have research to prove it. A recent analysis for the Retail Advertising and Marketing Association found a direct link between consumers exposure to advertising and their likelihood to begin an online search.

Consumers said they were most motivated to begin an online search after viewing:

  • Advertising in magazines (47.2%)
  • Newspapers (42.3%)
  • Ads on TV (42.8%)
  • From reading articles (43.7%)

In a particularly insightful quote, Mike Gatti, Executive Director of RAMA, said, "... while search engine marketing continues to be a popular strategy, retailers should not lose sight of traditional advertising channels to promote products and services."

Huh? We're now worried about search taking too much of the advertising budget away from TV, magazines and newspaper? Has Mr. Gatti seen how that particular pie is sliced up lately? If anything, we should flip this and tell all those advertisers dumping millions on television that they should back up those campaigns with a few bucks spent on relevant search terms. Here's just one example. In 2006, Ford spent mega bucks to promote their new Green line of Hybrid Ford Escapes on the Super Bowl in television ads. They had Kermit the Frog as their spokesperson..er...spokesfrog. But what Ford didn't remember is that all that media attention would probably drive a resulting spike in search activity. And sure enough, as we can see from the Google trends graph below, there was a spike:

Unfortunately, Ford forgot to bolster their keyword buy by including all related phrases, leaving the door open for General Motors to bid higher for a number of generic relevant phrases, including Ford's own spokesperson, Kermit the Frog, and intercept search users with pinpointed messaging. The total cost for Ford to close the loop on this particular campaign? Probably less than the cost of Kermit's personal assistant during the filming of the ad.

Googles Home Page Gets Skinned..and One Change of Note for SEOs

I just had the official walk-through of Google's recent announcement for personalized home pages. In a nutshell, they are allowing users the opportunity to skin their home page with one of six different themes. The goal, and I quote, is to "delight users". And they don't just want to delight them in the short term. They want this to be a long-lasting love affair with the Google home page.

Actually, in the call, we got sidetracked a little bit with something that, to me, was far more interesting. I'll get to that in a second but first of all let's look at the noteworthy aspects of Google's announcement. The theory here is that the more you can personalize your home page, the more likely you are to interact with it on an ongoing basis. And if there's a certain amount of cool involved, it will hopefully keep you coming back. Of course, Google wants this implementation to be technically clean so they've approached it with their typical engineering anal-retentiveness.

The application of the theme is restricted to the top of your personalized home page. Google was very careful to make sure that the graphics didn't impair either the performance of the page or your ability to get to the information on the page. They've taken some fairly ingenious workarounds to this. The themes are launched with a CSS framework and the foreground images are transparent gifs, layered over a tiled background that allows resizing of the browser without impairing the look and functionality of the page.

Google also, and again I quote, wanted this to be about "art and personality", not about a thinly "skinned" (if you'll pardon the pun) advertising pitches. They've only released six themes in this first round because they wanted to set the bar high. They indicated that they would likely be releasing more over time. And they also indicated that they are considering opening up a skinning API in the future, but they would rather not have highly commercially oriented skins, i.e. promoting the launch of a new movie, suddenly intruding on the personalized home page user experience.

One feature that is pretty cool about the new themes is that they are location sensitive. When you load a new theme the first thing you'll be asked to do is enter your zip code (right now this release is only aimed at the US, but a release for Google's other localization areas should come in the near future. I did add one in Canada, but I'm not sure if it's updating itself). After that, you'll find your seeing updates itself reflect the time of day and, in some cases, the season and your local weather.

Here are some examples. In Bus Stop, the weather impacting the bystanders changes based on what you might be seeing your window.

In Beach, the time of day will change your view over the seascape. When the sun sets out side, it should also be setting on your monitor.

And, in the seasonal theme, you'll not only see the theme change based time of day, you'll also see the changes of the seasons.

Google also promises some Easter eggs, hidden in amongst the themes.

All in all, it's a cool add-on to the Google personalized homepage. Of course the rationale behind this announcement is fairly transparent. Google is pushing hard to gain more face time with the average user, and this gives them a front to attack on. The more time you spend the Google home page, the more chance you will have to interact the other Google properties. Apparently, Google is seeing some very strong growth trends through 2006 with personalized homepage usage. They're also seeing a huge ramp-up of content delivered for the home page through their Gadgets API.

The SEM Easter Egg

But what about the search marketing implications? There's nothing about this particular announcement that should impact how the personalized home page could be used for personalized search, other than Google's hope that the addition of a personalized theme would lead to more interaction with your homepage. But there was a functional roll out recently by Google that could have implications for the search marketing community. This is something that I wasn't aware of and was lucky enough to get a quick walk-through.

When you sign in to your personalized homepage, you'll now see a small "add a tab" link beside the tab at the top of your home page. When you click on this you're asked to name your tab and if you leave the Feeling Lucky check box checked, Google will go out and find the content to put on your new page.

For example, I added a tab called SEO and Google automatically populated it with the latest headlines from SEOmoz, SEO News, Search Engine Land, Search Engine Watch and a number of other SEO sites.

I asked Google how it was determined what sites would be included in this set of default content. Apparently, it's decided by the most common choices of other people who have added a similarly named tab. In other words, these represent the aggregate choices of an ad hoc community, defined by the people who are interested in SEO and have decided to add these sites as content to their home page. And the set of default choices will constantly be refined, based on the most popular choices of people who add that tab. However, once you've added the tab to your own home page, your default content set remains static.

Okay, that's interesting. But let's factor in Google's other recent announcement, the fact that they now have an integrated personal suite that shares user data from search history and what you have on your personalized home page. It's not clear right now how much of an impact the content you've chosen to include on your personalized home page has on your personalized search results, but Google has said they wouldn't "preclude" the use of this information in the personalized results algorithm.

Let's further explore the implications. In these areas of interest, what gets included in the default content set under a possible "add a tab" category might have a significant advantage for any searches that fall within that content area. The more people who leave the Feeling Lucky? check box checked, the more people that will have these default content providers represented on the homepage, which will in turn likely impact their personalized search results. As we start exploring personalized search more and more, we're starting to see the possible tactics that are emerging for gaining visibility on a personalized search page.

So what's the bottom line here? Google's new themes are cute and will likely lead to a higher degree of usage, but they have little impact on the world of search marketing. However, the "Add a Tab" functionality could potentially have a lot more impact.

Improving the Odds of Connecting with Your Target Market

Kim Krause Berg had a interesting additional thought to my post about eye tracking. Her question, "What happens when your target market gets up on the wrong side of the bed?".

This got me to thinking about the validity of market research and understanding more about your target customer. Kim's point, which she makes quite clearly, is that people are people and all the research in the world won't be able to tell you if your target customers having a bad day, or for that matter, an extraordinarily good day, when they are interacting with your site. How much of a role does emotion play with predicted behavior?

In marketing and user centered design circles, we often talk about our targeted users and customers. Companies with money to blow will run studies on who their target consumers are, or run focus groups on what people love and hate about their products. The human factors industry studies human-computer behavior. Usability companies try to understand what ticks off end users. Conversions experts look for all the reasons behind failed sales. Search engine marketers dig deep for keywords used by the perfect end user who knows exactly what they’re looking for.

Once all this data is gathered, white papers are written, case studies are published and articles are run that inform us about what our site visitors and product users want, what they like, how they make choices and why. We may think we’re very cool and savvy to have found the holy grail of ROI.

What if your product, service, internet application or website is humming along, primed for the perfect targeted end user and that person is suddenly different?

Perhaps they are emotionally upset. PMS. Menopausal. Facing surgery. Sleepless parents. Overworked wage earners. Out of work. On medication. Depressed. Drunk. Suffers a sudden loss of eyesight or use of their hands. There are a zillion reasons why someone has an "off" day, is feeling emotionally or mentally out of whack or drastically changes in some way. This can last for a day, or longer.

Either way, what they are dealing with, at the moment they are accessing your website, service, product or application, may have an impact on how successful they are at completing a task.

Marketing is a game of percentages. It's all about increasing your odds of hitting that perfect combination: putting the right message in front of the right person at the right time. Will you get it right 100% of the time? Of course not. But then again, if you can improve your odds of success from 50% to 60 or 70% you've just scored a huge marketing coup.

When you reduce marketing to one to one communication, you're completely dependent on the receptiveness of your intended target. Unless you're in front of the person when you communicate with them, there's no way for you to pick up their mood or emotion. You can't alter your message accordingly to the signals that you're picking up. But the interesting thing is, as variable as people are on an individual basis, if you put enough of them together they start reacting in predictable patterns. While it might be impossible to predict the success of your message on an individual basis, the greater the size of the group, the more confident you are in predicting what the aggregate patterns will look like. And that's where understanding more about your target market can dramatically improve your odds. If Kim is in my target market, I might not know what her mood might be on any given day. If I have 10,000 Kim's in my target market, I can be fairly sure that on any given day a certain percentage of them will be in a good mood, a certain percentage will be in a bad mood, and a certain percentage will be relatively ambivalent. I don't have to be precise on a one-to-one level, because the law of averages works in my favor. I'll get more right than wrong. What is important, however, is that you have a good understanding of what all those Kim's generally like, what motivates them, and what their intent is when they interact with my brand.

There's a lot of talk about personas as a tool to help you understand your target market better. One of the reasons people hesitate to use personas is that it feels odd, when your target market could be made up of thousands or millions of individuals, to build a conceptual framework represents just one individual. Again, it seems like you're oversimplifying the collective needs and wants of your segment. But the power of a persona is the way it forces you to shift your paradigm, the way it forces you to look at things from a customer's point of view and interact with your brand through their eyes, not yours. It's this fundamental shift in thinking that has to happen to be able to effectively close communication. Once you build your persona framework, you can start dropping in the individual pieces of research intelligence you might have on your target market. It helps to create a profile, complete with a much greater understanding of what motivates that target, relative to your offering. It's very difficult start a conversation with someone when you have no idea who you're talking to.

The whole point of communication is to effectively connect and transfer information back and forth. The greater the understanding, the greater the odds of making that connection. Ideally, we should all be able to sit in front of each individual we're communicating with and be able to read their body language, be able to pick up their signals, be able to interpret their moods and emotions. This being impossible (my track record with my wife is pretty abysmal and I live with her every day) the next best thing is to understand more about the group as a whole and what motivates them, and then to be able to craft your messaging in a way that resonates with them. Again, it's all about improving your odds for success. If Kim gets up on the wrong side of the bed today, I might totally blow my chances of getting the right message to her, simply because she's not in the mood to receive it. But for every one I get wrong, there will be several more that I get right.

Shari Thurow Talking Smack about Eye Tracking?

You know, if I didn't know better I'd say that Shari Thurow had issues with me and eye tracking. I ran across a column a couple of weeks ago where she was talking about the niches that SEO's are carving out for themselves and she mentioned eye tracking specifically. In fact she devoted a whole section to eye tracking. Now, it's pretty hard not to take it personally when Enquiro is the only search marketing company I know that does extensive eye tracking. We're the only ones I'm aware of that have eye tracking equipment in-house. So when Shari singles out eye tracking and warns about using the results in isolation...

That brings me to my favorite group of SEO specialists: search usability professionals. As much as I read and admire their research, they, too, often don't focus on the big picture.

...I'm not sure who else she might be talking about.

I've been meaning to post on this for awhile but I just didn't get around to it. I'm on the road today and feeling a little cranky so what the heck. It's time to respond in kind. First, here's Shari's take on on eye tracking and SEO.

Eye-tracking data is always fascinating to observe on a wide variety of Web pages, including SERPs (define). As a Web developer, I love eye-tracking data to let me know how well I'm drawing visitors' attention to the appropriate calls to action for each page type.

Nonetheless, eye-tracking data can be deceiving. Most search marketers understand the SERP's prime viewing area, which is in the shape of an "F." Organic or natural search results are viewed far more often than search engine ads are, and (as expected) top, above-the-fold results are viewed more often than the lower, below-the-fold results. Viewing a top listing in a SERP isn't the same as clicking that link and taking the Web site owner's desired call to action.

Remember, usability testing isn't the same as focus groups and eye tracking. Focus groups measure peoples' opinions about a product or service. Eye-tracking data provide information about where people focus their visual attention. Usability testing is task-oriented. It measures whether participants complete a desired task. If the desired task isn't completed, the tests often reveal the many roadblocks to task completion.

Eye-tracking tests used in conjunction with usability tests and Web analytics analysis can reveal a plethora of accurate information about search behavior. But eye-tracking tests used in isolation yield limited information, just as Web analytics and Web positioning data yield limited (and often erroneous) information.

Okay Shari, you didn't mention me or Enquiro by name but again, who else would you be talking about?

Actually, Shari and I agree more than we disagree here. I agree that no single data source or research or testing approach provides all the answers, including eye tracking. However, eye tracking data adds an extraordinarily rich layer of data to common usability testing. When Shari says eye tracking is not the same as usability testing, she's only half right. As Shari points out, eye tracking combines very well with usability testing but in many cases, can be overkill. Usability testing is task oriented. There's no reason why eye tracking studies can't be task oriented as well (most of ours are). The eye tracking equipment we use is very unobtrusive. It virtually like interacting with any computer in a usability lab. In usability testing you put someone in front of the computer with the task and asked them to complete the task. Typically you record the entire interaction with software such as TechSmith's Morae. After you can replay the session and watch where the cursor goes. Eye tracking can capture all that, plus capture where the eyes went. It's like taking a two dimensional test and suddenly making it three-dimensional. Everything you do in usability can also be done with eye tracking.

The fact is, the understanding we currently have of interaction with the search results would be impossible to know without eye tracking. I'd like to think that a lot of our current understanding of interaction with search results comes from the extensive eye tracking testing we've done on the search results page. The facts that Shari says are common knowledge among search marketers comes, in large part, from our work with eye tracking. And we're not the only ones. Cornell and Microsoft have done their own eye tracking studies, as has Jakob Nielsen, and findings have been remarkably similar. I've actually talked to the groups responsible for these other eye tracking tests and we've all learned from each other.

When Enquiro produced our studies we took a deep dive into the data that we collected. I think we did an excellent job at not presenting just the top level findings but really tried to create an understanding of what the interaction with the search results page looks like. Over the course of the last two years I've talked to Google, Microsoft and Yahoo. I've shared the findings of our research and learned a little bit more about the findings of their own internal research. I think, on the whole, we know a lot more about how people interact with search than we did two years ago, thanks in large part to eye tracking technology. The big picture Shari keeps alluding to has broadened and been colored much more extensively thanks to those studies. And Enquiro has tried to share that information as much as possible. I don't know of anyone else in the search marketing world who's done more to help marketers understand how people interact with search. When we released our first study, Shari wrote a previous column that basically said, "Duh, who didn't know this before?" Well, based on my discussions with hundreds, actually, thousands of people, almost everyone, save for a few usability people at each of the main engines.

There are some dangers with eye tracking. Perhaps the biggest danger is that heat maps are so compelling visually. People tend not to go any further. The Golden Triangle image has been displayed hundreds, if not thousands of times, since we first released it. It's one aggregate snapshot of search activity. And perhaps this is what Shari's referring to. If so, I agree with her completely. This one snapshot can be deceiving. You need to do a really deep dive into the data to understand all the variations that can take place. But it's not the methodology of eye tracking that's at fault here. It's people's unwillingness to roll up their sleeves and weed through the amount of data that comes with eye tracking, preferring instead to stop at those colorful heat maps and not go any further. Conclusions on limited data can be dangerous, no matter the methodology behind them. I actually said the same for an eye tracking study Microsoft did that had a few people drawing overly simplified conclusions. The same is true for usability testing, focus groups, quantitative analysis, you name it. I really don't believe Enquiro is guilty of doing this. That's why we released reports that are a couple hundred pages in length, trying to do justice to the data we collected.

Look, eye tracking is a tool, a very powerful one. And I don't think there's any other tool I've run across that can provide more insight into search experience, when it's used with a well designed study. Personally, if you want to learn more about how people interact with engines, I don't think there's any better place to start than our reports. And it's not just me saying so. I've heard as much from hundreds of people who have bought them, including representatives at every major search engine (they all have corporate licenses, as well as a few companies you might have heard of, IBM, HP, Xerox..to name a few). I know the results pages you see at each of the major engines look the way they do in part because of our studies.

Shari says we don't focus on the big picture. Shari, you should know that you can't see the big picture until you fill in the individual pieces of the puzzle. That's what we've been trying to do. I only wish more people out there followed our example.

What's your Favorite Search Interface?

I'd like to take a look beyond the big three at some of the more innovative search interfaces that are out there.  If you've ran across anything that relies on a query to pull back information and you think it's been handled in a particularly clever way, please post a comment and let me know about it.  It could be plain Web search, image search, video search, music search, meta search... you name it.

Quick Friday update

Just want to do a quick post today pointing you to a couple of columns I ran this week that might be of interest, just in case you missed them.

My SearchInsider this week (Lessons Learned from the Pasternack SEO Contest) was talking about Greg Boser's entry into the David Pasternack SEO contest.  Greg's approach was very clever and I just had to send props out to him.  My point in the column was that SEO is as much about understanding how we connect and interact online and how human behavior tends to play itself out as it is about technical tricks and tactics.  And I think that's the whole point that Dave Pasternack missed when he decided to launch his attack against SEO  Buzz online is certainly a dynamic force and it's reflected in the organic search results, more than anywhere else.  If you have someone who really understands that, they can leverage organic optimization effectively.  That's what Greg did in this particular contest.  So while SEO might not be rocket science, it's definitely a social science.  Greg gave us a very clever lesson in how algorithmic search works as a proxy for common social interest patterns online.  It's probably not a coincidence that I understand Greg Boser is an avid poker player.  He's obviously a student of human nature and he played his hand very well in this contest.  Anyway for more details, check out this week SearchInsider.

My Just Behave column on Searchengineland this week (The Pros and Cons of Personalized Search) was a recap on personalization and why I think it will be a win for the user, eventually.  I gathered some comments I picked up from my blog and from various places online that were protesting Google's move towards personalization.  Through them I try to identify the common themes and tried to understand why people are pushing back against personalized search results. I also tried to present the other side of things.

User-centricity is More than just a Word

Ever since Time Magazine made you and I the person of the year, user experience has been the two words on the tip of everyone's tongue. We're all saying that the user is king and that we're building everything around them. But I fear that user-centricity is quickly becoming one of those corporate clichés that's easy to say, but much, much harder to do. All too often I see internal fighting in a lot of companies between those that truly get user centricity and have become the internal user champions and those that are continuing to push the corporate agenda, at the expense of the user experience. The tough part of user centricity is seeing things through the users eyes. We can do user testing but if we truly put the user first, it requires tremendous courage and fortitude to make the user the primary stakeholder. All too often, I see user considerations being one of several factors that are being balanced in the overall design. And often, it takes a backseat to other considerations, such as monetization. This is the trap that Yahoo currently finds themselves in. They talk about user experience all the time. But the fact is, over the last two years it's really been the advertiser whose's owned their search results page. I've recently seen signs of the balance tipping more towards the user's favor with the rollout of Panama and a more judicious presentation of top sponsored ads. But I'm still not sure the user is winning the battle at Yahoo!

It's not easy to step inside your user's head when it comes to designing interfaces. It's very tought to toggle the user perspective on and off when you're going through a design cycle. The feedback we get from usability testing tends to be too far removed from the actual implementation of the design. By that time the meat of the findings has been watered down and diluted to the point where the user's voice is barely heard. That's why I like personas as a design vehicle. A well formulated persona keeps you on track. It keeps you in the mindset of the user. It gives you a mental framework you can step into quickly and readjust your perspective to that of the user, not the designer.

If you're truly going to be user centric, be prepared to take a lot of flack from a lot of people. This is not a promise to be made lightly. You have to commit to it and not let anything dissuade you from delivering the best possible end-user experience, defined in the user's own terms. This can't be a corporate feel good thing. It has to be a corporate commitment that requires balls the size of Texas. And if you're going to make a commitment, you better be damn sure that the entire company is also willing to make the same commitment. The user experience group can't be a lone bastion for the user, fighting a huge sea of corporate momentum going in the opposite direction. This isn't about balancing the user in the grand scheme of things, it's about committing wholeheartedly to them and getting everyone else in the organization to make the same commitment. If you can do so, I think the potential wins are huge. There's a lot of people talking about user centricity but there's not a lot of people delivering on it consistently and wholeheartedly.

Post Mortem on Ten and a Half Months of Posts

Well, my interview with Matt Cutts certainly seems to be causing ripples in the SEO world. At this point, it's well on its way to becoming the most read blog posts I've ever made. The fact is, I have to thank Matt for my two highest traffic days ever. The first came when I launched my blog and Matt "Matt-dotted" it. That has been the record up until now, when my interview with Matt drove more daily visits and page views on Monday.

In a more analytical bent, it was interesting to see how the traffic ramped up. On Friday, when the interview was posted, the majority of traffic was coming from the predictable sources. There was a link from Search engine land and Search Engine Watch and Web Pro News also picked up the post and ran it in a couple of stories. This drove the majority of the traffic over the weekend. But as time went on (through Monday and today), the long tail kicked in and links to the post showed up in a number of blogs and forums, both here and overseas. While my referral base broadened out dramatically, the traffic kept rolling. Obviously, the long tail phenomenon occurs everywhere. In the last 24 hours, it's been these widely dispersed links that have driven the majority of the traffic.

It's also interesting to note the contrast in the pickup between Matt's interview and the previous interview with Marissa Mayer. While Marissa's interview actually contained more hard data on how personalization works on Google, Matt speculated on what personalization might do for the future of SEO. That was obviously a hot button and generated a number of pickups. Something about putting the name Matt Cutts and the letters SEO in the same title almost guarantees that you're going to capture attention in this industry.

I always find it fascinating to see which blog posts pickup steam and which once seem to linger forever with hardly anyone reading them. In many cases, the posts I'm most proud of are the ones that seem to limp along, capturing a handful of page views every so often. Anything that touches on controversy seems to strike a chord.

Looking back at my blog records, my most read posts to date are:

Usability and Asinine Comments from the Bay

Controversy stirred up at a Jakob Nielsen Usability Summit in San Francisco where I discussed brand experience online and the use of graphics on websites

Relevancy Rules in Top Sponsored

A sneak preview of our eye tracking study that showed how importance relevance in those top sponsored ads were for attracting attention and clicks

The Matt Cutts Interview

Matt talks about personalization and its impact on Seo

The Personalized Results are Coming, The Personalized Results are Coming

My follow-up post when Google made its announcement early in February that was pushing more people toward signing up for personalized results

The Marissa Mayer Interview

Chatting with Marissa about personalization and its impact on user experience

For interest sake, I also looked back at my main referrer sources. Google by the bigger referrer source, driving about 14% of my traffic, with Matt's blog second (a testament to it's popularity, considering he's only linked to my blog a couple of times) at 12.5%. After that it's MediaPost, Search engine Land and Search Engine Guide.

For those of us always looking to build buzz on our blogs, it's helpful to take a look back to see what our hits and misses were. For myself, I want to keep a balance between getting the posts out that I think are important, whether or not they attract a ton of links, and obviously giving my readers what they want. It looks like more sneak previews of our internal research and more interviews with the people that are shaping the search experience at Yahoo, Google and Microsoft are where I have to look in the future.

Debating with Myself about Whether or Not Google Can Change Advertising

Ari Rosenberg, a media buying consultant, had an interesting column last week about Google's plans to enter the cable TV market, just the same as they've made inroads in the radio and print markets. Google's approach in all these markets is consistent. They will apply technology to open up the marketplace, removing the middleman and basically automating the purchase of media. Ari argues that while Google may understand technology, they have a lot to learn about how advertising works. This is a huge, complex question and there are a lot of different shades of gray to the argument. It's not a simple yes or no argument. But there are some very interesting aspects, both pro and con, there he touches on in his column. So I'd like to present to differing viewpoints, both pro and con, about why or why not Google may actually change how advertising is done.

The Pro Side: Making the Marketplace More Efficient

There is no doubt that there's a lot of room for efficiency in most media buying markets. There is a layer upon layer of friction in the marketplace, caused by entrenched consultants, reps and buyers and other "filler" between the ultimate buyer and seller. This is where Google can excel. Their theory is that they can remove the friction by using their technology to enable marketplaces where buyers and sellers can connect directly. More than this, they introduce the notion of relevancy. Ultimately, Google wants to achieve their end marketing goal of always showing the right ad to the right person at the right time. They would take the idea of keyword relevancy, pioneered so effectively on the Web, and apply it to other channels. Of course this depends on a more interactive version of print, radio, or cable than we currently see. But as all media converge, Google's initial inroads into each of these channels will secure them a foothold at the time when relevancy starts to matter.

In this regard, Google is definitely dealing from two areas of strength. They understand technology and have been successful in developing clean, efficient interfaces to help streamline the flow of commerce. There is definitely a change that is needed in the media buying marketplace and Google has the engineering chops to clean it up dramatically. Also, they have a clear and deep understanding of consumer intent, expressed in the consumer's own terms. And as it begins to matter more in advertising, Google is well-placed to make those consumer initiated connections happen.

The Con Side: Understanding Marketing

In last few years, I've had enough interaction with Google to understand that for them, marketing is considered a necessary evil. There's a lot of "soft", undefinable aspects to marketing, that can't be distilled into a simple, clean algorithm. This is thinking that is largely foreign to the Google frame of mind. Google loves mathematical simplicity and definition. Two plus two should always equal four. The question shouldn't be up for debate. But marketing is not that simple, not that clean, not that black-and-white. There's a lot of gray in marketing.

Ari makes the point that Google doesn't understand advertising. This is largely right. Google is an engineering company. It exists to apply technology to solve problems. If you look at the makeup of the Google organization, their own marketing department is a small, under resourced afterthought. Because they didn't need to use advertising, the philosophy is that really is not necessary for anyone. As Google steps into advertising, think of them as Mr. Spock, reluctantly doing a stint as a Madison Avenue ad exec (now that's an idea for a sitcom).

The Wild Card: the Consumer

Ultimately, it's not Google or Madison Avenue that will have the last word in this debate. It's you and me and 6 billion (and counting) other consumers. There is an old world and the new world in marketing. And the former is rapidly giving way to the latter. The wild card in all this is the changing game of marketing. Sure, Google may not understand the "warm fuzzies" of marketing, those undefinable aspects of brand engagement, but what Google does understand is connecting users with what they're looking for. And do we really need advertising that hits us at a visceral and an emotional level, when it's exactly the advertising we're looking for anyway? It doesn't have to hammer us over the head with its message, because we're openly receptive to that message, we're seeking it. As Google moves into print, cable, and radio it may not be that their lack of understanding of the current reality of marketing that will hold them back for making it successful. It may be the fact that those channels just don't lend themselves very well to this new idea of consumer empowerment. Consumer empowerment is expressed much more easily over the interactive platform of the Internet. The Internet is the next evolution of marketing. The question will be more if Google can make a significant inroad into these more traditional channels before the channels become integrated within interactive, Web driven platform. Or will there be just too much friction to overcome?

Matt Cutts Interview on Personalization and the Future of SEO

I had the chance to interview Matt Cutts this week about personalization and it's impact on the SEO industry. Excerpts from the interview and some additional commentary are in my Just Behave column on Search Engine Land today. As promised, here is the full transcript of the interview:

Gord: We’ve been awhile setting this up, and actually, this came from a discussion we had some time ago about geo-targeting of results in Canada, and we’re going to get to that a bit later. With this recent move by Google to move towards more personalization of the search results page, there’s some negative feedback and, to me, it seems to be coming from the SEO community. What’s your take on that?

Matt: I think that it’s natural that some people would be worried about change, but some of the best SEO’s are the SEO’s that are able to adapt, that are able to look down the road 4 or 5 years and say, “What are the big trends going to be?” and adjust for those trends in advance, so that when a search engine does make a change which you think is inevitable or will eventually happen, they’ll be in a good position. Personalization is one of those things where if you look down the road a few years, having a search engine that is willing to give you better results because it can know a little bit more about what your interests are, that’s a clear win for users, and so it’s something that SEO’s can probably predict that they’ll need to prepare for. At the same time, any time there’s a change, I understand that people need some time to adjust to that and need some time to think, “How is this going to affect me? How is this going to affect the industry? And what can I do to benefit from it?”

Gord: It seems to me, having a background in SEO, that the single biggest thing with personalization is the lack of a “test bed”, the lack of something to refer to when you’re doing your reverse engineering. You can’t look at a page of search results any more and say “that’s going to be the same page of test results that everyone’s seeing“. Given that, , more and more, we’re going to be seeing less of universal search results, is this the nail in the coffin for shady SEO tactics?

Matt: I wouldn’t say that it’s necessarily the nail in the coffin, but it’s clearly a call to action, where there’s a fork in the road and people can think hard about whether they’re optimizing for users or whether they’re optimizing primarily for search engines. And the sort of people who have been doing “new” SEO, or whatever you want to call it, that’s social media optimization, link bait, things that are interesting to people and attract word of mouth and buzz, those sorts of sites naturally attract visitors, attract repeat visitors, attract back links, attract lots of discussion, those sorts of sites are going to benefit as the world goes forward. At the same time, if you do choose to go to the other fork, towards the black hat side of things, you know you’re going to be working harder and the return is going to be a little less. And so over time, I think, the balance of what to work on does shift toward working for the user, taking these white hat techniques and looking for the sites and changes you can implement that will be to the most benefit to your user.

Gord: It would seem to be that there’s one sector of the industry that’s going to be hit harder by this, and I think it was Greg Boser or Todd Friesen who said, “You don’t take a knife to a gun fight.” So when you’re looking at the competitive categories, like the affiliates, where you don’t have that same site equity, you don’t have that same presence on the web to work with, that’s where it’s going to get hit, right?

Matt: I think one area that will change a lot, for example, is local stuff. Already, you don’t do a search for football and get the same results in the U.K. as you do in the U.S. So there are already a lot of things that return different search results based on country, and expect that trend to continue. It is, however, also the case that in highly commercial or highly spammed areas, if you are able to return more relevant, more personalized results, it gets a little harder to optimize, because the obstacles are such that you’re trying to show up on a lot of different searches rather than just one set of search engine result pages, so it does tilt the balance a little bit, yes.  

Gord: I had a question about localization of search results, and I think being from Canada we’re perhaps a little bit more aware of it. How aware are American SEO’s that this is the case, that if  they’re targeting markets outside the U.S., they may not be seeing the same results that you’re seeing in the U.S.

Matt: I think that many SEO’s are relatively aware, but I’ve certainly talked to a few people who didn’t realize that if you do a search from the U.K., or from Canada, or from India, or from almost any country, you can get different results, instead of just the standard American results. And it’s definitely something that’s a huge benefit. If you’re in the United Kingdom and you type the query newspapers, you don’t want to get, necessarily, the L.A. Times or a local paper in Seattle, the Post-Intelligencer. Something like that. So I think it’s definitely started down that trend, and, over time, personalization will help a lot of people realize that it’s not just a generic set of results, or a vanilla set of results. You have to be thinking about how you’re going to show up in all of these markets, and personalization and localization complement each other in that regard.

Gord: Now one difference between localization and personalization is that personalization has the option of a toggle, you can toggle it on and off. Localization doesn’t have that same toggle, so as a Canadian, sometimes I may not want my results localized. Where does that put the user?

Matt: It’s interesting, because you have to gauge…and you talked to Marissa a couple times already, and from that you probably got a feel for the difficulty in making those decisions about just how much functionality to expose, in terms of toggles and advanced user preferences and stuff like that. So what we try to do is tackle the most common case and make that very simple. And a lot of the times, the functionality is such that you don’t even necessarily want someone that’s coming in from the U.K. to be able to search as if they’re coming in from Africa because it just makes things a lot more complicated. So, over time, I’d say we’re probably open to lots of different ways of allowing people to search. For example, you can select different countries for the advertisements. There’s a GL parameter I believe, where you can actually say, “now, show the ads as if I were searching from Canada. Okay, now I’m going to switch to Mexico”. Stuff like that. And that’s been very helpful, because if you giving Google money to buy ads, you want to be able to check and see what those ads would look like, in different regions. For search we haven’t historically made that as easy. It’s something that we’d probably be open to, but again, it’s one of those things where probably SEO’s are a lot more interested,you’re your regular user isn’t quite as interested.

Gord: And that gets to the ongoing problem. SEO’s have one perspective, users have another and arguably, yes, localization is good for the user, but for an SEO that deals with a lot of Canadian companies where the U.S. is their primary market. They’re looking at hitting that U.S. market. I guess this restricts them to making it look like their sites actually reside in the U.S. to get around it. So again, we’re trying to poke holes in the functionality, rather than live with it.

Matt: Well, one thing that should be possible is to indicate some sort of preference, or some sort of origin of location where you can indicate where you are. Historically Google has been ahead of the other search engines at the time by not just using the top level domain, so .ca, but also the I.P. address. So you can have .com hosted in Canada and that’s worked very well for many, many years. But we do continue to get feedback that people would like more flexibility, more options, so it’s a matter of deciding how many people that would help and just allocating resources on those types of things.

Gord: So we talked about personalization, we talked about localization. Are there other factors that are coloring the search results we should be aware of as we’re trying to consider all these aspects?

Matt: Once you’ve sort of “broken the mould” with different results for different countries, after that it's good for people to move beyond the idea of a monolithic set of search results. If we had the ability to say someone is searching for Palo Alto or someone is searching for Kirkland or Redmond and give them local newspapers, truly local newspapers, that would be a good win for users as well.  So over time, I would expect search results to serve a broader and broader array of services.  The idea of a monolithic set of search results for a generic term will probably start to fade away, and you already see people expect that if I do a search and somebody else does the search, they can get slightly different answers. I expect that over time people will expect that more and more, and they'll have that in the back of their heads.

Gord: Let's take that "over time" and drill down a little more.  One of the things it was interesting for me when I was talking to Marissa with the fact that the Kaltix acquisition was made four years ago and it's really taken four years for that technology to really show up in the search results.  Obviously a cautious approach to it.  And even with that we're talking a couple of results being lifted into the top 10 and we're talking one in five searches.  Also Marissa wasn't exactly sure about this so I’ll clarify this with you.  She believed that it would never replace the number one organic result.

Matt: I believe that's correct.  I'd have to double check to make sure.

Gord: So that's a fairly tentative step in the direction of personalization, and you said over time we can expect this to continue to ship to be more of an individual experience.  Are we talking months, are we talking years, are we talking tomorrow?

Matt (chuckling): It’s usually not our policy to comment on exactly when stuff might roll out in the future, but personalization is an important trend and the ability to make search results better through personalization is really exciting to us here at Google.  I think if you look backwards over time, a lot of the reason why we might not have been able to personalize before was because Google was very much a "you come to the front page, you do a search, you get the results and you're gone” type of model.  And there really weren't that many opportunities to have a single sign on or some sort of Google account, where we could actually learn or know a little bit more about you to make your results more relevant.  So I think part of it involves getting all of the different ways of having an account together, so you can have personalized news, which rolled out a while ago, you could have a personalized homepage and those things give people a reason to sign in to Google.  Once you're signed in to Google that helps us a lot more, by having your search history and the ability to offer personalization.  So at least looking backwards, I think some of the amount of time was just getting people ready to have a Google account and not just show up in Google, do a search and leave.

Gord: So part of it is that transition from a tool you use to more of a community you are engaged in.

Matt: Yes

Gord: That’s moving closer to your competition, notably Yahoo and Microsoft.  Google's done very well as a tool.  Is this just the inevitable progression?

Matt: I think one nice thing is that Google adapts very well to what users want, and also the industry marketplace.  And so when our primary competition was a pure search engine, whether it be AltaVista or AlltheWeb or HotBot or Inktomi, then pure search mattered very much.  Search is still a part of everything we do.  It's at the core of all the information that we organize and yet competing against sites like Yahoo and Microsoft involves a different set of strategies than competing against just a search engine for example.  So I think competition is very good for users, because it makes all of us work hard and it keeps us on our toes.  The one strength that Google has is that we do adapt and we look at the marketplace and we say, “What do we need to deliver next for our users to help them out and to encourage them to be more loyal to Google?”

Gord: So for your job, where you're looking at the quality of the index and policing it, how does personalization change your job?

Matt: To some degree, it makes it easier, because it's not one monolithic set of search results anymore.  But let me flip that around and say how we can make it easier for SEO’s as well.  I'm a computer graphics person, so if you go back to a concept called digital half toning, it’s this process where you have nothing but black and white, yet you are able to approximate different shades of gray. And if you look at the existing set of search results, a lot of people before had a very black or white mentality.  I'm ranking, or maybe I'm ranking number one or are not in the search results at all.  And that's a very harsh step function, in terms of you not ranking where you think you should be, and maybe you're not getting very much traffic at all.  If you are ranking number one, or very highly, you're a very happy person.  And yet that monolithic set of search results may not serve users the best.  So now as we see that spread and soften, more people can show up at number one but for a smaller volume of queries.  And so individual users are happier because they're getting more relevant search results and yet it's not a winner take all mentality for SEOs anymore.  You can be the number one ranking set of results for your niche, whether it be a certain demographic or a certain locality, or something like that.  And I think that's healthier overall, rather than having just a few people that are doing very well, you end up with a lot more SEO, and a lot more users who are happy and that's softens the effect quite a bit.

Gord: What you're talking about is a pretty fundamental shift in thinking on the part of a lot of SEOs...

Matt: yes

Gord: ... a lot of SEOs are almost more engineers right now, where they're looking at the algorithm and trying to figure out how to best it.  You're asking them to become a lot of things, more marketing, PR, content developers, and know more about the user, more about user behavior online.  These are very different skill sets and often don't reside in the same body.  What is this going to do to the SEO industry?

Matt: I think the SEO's that adapt well to change an optimized for users are going to be in relatively good shape, because they're trying to produce sites that are really pleasing and helpful to users.  It's definitely the case that if all you care about is an algorithm than the situation grows more complicated for you with personalization.  But it's also an opportunity for people to take a fresh look at how they do SEO.  So give you a quick example: we always say, don't just chase after a trophy phrase.  There are so many people who think if I ranked number one for my trophy phase I win and my life will be good.  When, in fact, numerous people demonstrated that if you chase after the long tail and make a good site that can match many many different user’s queries you might end up with more traffic than if you had that trophy phrase.  So already the smart SEO, looking down the road, knows that it's not just the head of the tail, it's the long part of the tail and with personalization and the changes in how SEO will work, it will just push people further along the spectrum, towards looking at "it's not just looking at a number one result for one query, how do we make it across a lot of queries.  What value do I deliver?  Am I looking at my server logs to find queries that I should be targeting?  And not just search engines, how do I target different parts of the search engine?  Like the local part of Google, the maps part of Google.  How do I target Google notebook and the other properties and how do I show up well across the entire portfolio of search properties?”  And that's a healthy transition period that will push people towards delivering better value for their users and that's better for everybody.

Gord: I get that and I'm an SEO.  My challenge comes in getting my clients, who in a lot of cases did their own SEO or worked with another SEO firm before they came to us and are used to that trophy phrase ranking.  How do we get them to get?  Because I see that being a challenge with a lot of SEOs. They will understand that, but getting the client to understand it could be a different matter

Matt: Sometimes I think you might have to do a demonstration like sign them into personalized search, do a query, sign them out, do query and show them, these are very different sets of results.  And sometimes the demonstration can be very visceral, you know, it can drive home the point that it's not just going to be this one trophy phrase. People are going to have to think and look at the entire horizon of the space.

Gord: In Google there's a very definite church versus state divide and traditionally the relationship with the advertiser was almost exclusively on one side of that divide.  But this could mark a fairly fundamental shift, and it will impact your advertisers, so as part of that community, will Google be doing anything to help those advertisers understand the organic part of their visibility on Google?  Will you be doing the same demonstration you just telling us we should be doing?

Matt: I think Google is always trying to communicate with the outside community, both with webmasters and advertisers.  So it's really exciting to see some of the different techniques that we've used, everything from webinars to training materials to making videos available.  I would definitely say that every part of Google is going to keep their eyes open on how to best communicate how to stay on top of changes, because nobody wants anybody outside of Google to be unprepared for personalization or improvements in any of our technologies.

Katie (Katie Watson, Google PR representative who was sitting in on the interview) Something to actually cite there is that I know we recently just opened up our webmaster blog to outside comments, so that’s a good example of gradually moving forward to communicate even better.

Matt: You were couching the question in terms of advertisers, but if you look at the general story of webmaster communication and assume that that's the leading edge, it's pretty safe to assume that those smart ideas are percolating throughout the company and we’re trying to figure out all the different ways to communicate more.

Gord: So that's the canary in the coal mine. Whatever's happening in the webmaster community will act as a testbed for communication?

Matt: Exactly.

Gord: There is a debate raging right now about “is SEO rocket science”?  (Matt begins laughing) So what does personalization means for that debate?  Does it become more complicated?  You said it becomes easier in some ways and I countered that by saying that may be, but is also spreading out in a lot of different directions. Is there still a place for the pure SEO consultant out there?

Matt: I think there still is a place for you for a pure SEO consultant but it's also true that over time those consultants have to keep adding to their skill set.  A few years ago no one would have even thought about the word Ajax and now people have to think about Ajax or Flash and how do I handle some of these new interfaces to still make sites crawlable?  So I definitely think there will still be places for consulting and improving crawlability of sites and advice on keywords and personalization will add some wrinkles to that, but I have faith that, over time we’ll see the benefit to users and if you make good site for your users, you will naturally benefit as a result.  Some people spend a lot of time looking at data centers and data center IP addresses and if people want to have that as a hobby they're welcome to it but a lot of people don't do that anymore and they're just worried about making good results and yet, everything still comes out pretty well for them.

Gord: Some time ago I wrote a column along that line and said that, in many ways, the white hat SEO has helped clean up the Black hat side of the street because they enabled those good site to be crawled, to show up in the index and to assume their rightful place in the results.  It would seem to mean that personalization is just going to drive that process faster.

Matt: I think it will.  It's making Black Hat tougher to do.  I think it's interesting, it was designed primarily to improve the relevance for users but as a side effect, it definitely changes the game a lot more if you're on the Black hat side of things then if you're on the white hat side of things

Gord: Matt, I think that wraps things up for me..

Matt: Thanks, that was fun.

Should We Believe Google's Click Fraud Numbers?

Today, Google finally came out with some solid numbers around the click fraud issue. The number of invalid clicks across the Google network? Less than 10%. The total amount of undetected click fraud that advertisers have reported and asked for a refund for? .02% I was briefed by Google little while ago about their plans around click fraud and so I had some time to digest the numbers and think about them. Google also passed my name along as an expert third-party that the media could contact to get more commentary about the numbers and Google's product roadmap for dealing with click fraud. If you're interested in what the numbers actually mean, I would suggest going to Danny Sullivan's post this morning on Searchengineland. Danny does his usual thorough job of making sense of the announcement.

One question that I got from a couple reporters yesterday was, did I believe Google's numbers? Although I should have anticipated this question, I was somewhat surprised. So last night I thought about. What would Google gain by fudging the numbers at this point? I think there's a few points you have to consider when looking for the answer to this question. Based on the fact that I've already been asked it three times, by three different reporters. I believe it is a valid question and one that a number of people will probably be asking.

Maybe I'm naïve, after all, I am an Alberta farm boy at heart, but in all my interactions with Google I have to say, Google just doesn't work this way. Google is a very cautious company when it comes to divulging information. I would think one of the biggest frustrations that Shuman Ghosemajumder has had in the past is having to keep his mouth shut while various inflated numbers around click fraud were thrown about. My belief is that it's been Shuman lobbying inside of Google that finally convinced them to open the box a little bit on the scope of click fraud in the Google advertising network. Maybe the "don't be evil" motto of Google sounds trite to some, but people at Google believe it and take it to heart.

What would Google have to gain by releasing false numbers about click fraud? The only possible motivation would be to; one, artificially inflate their stock price, and two; encourage more advertising revenue by falsely reducing the sensitivity around the click fraud issue.

Let's deal with the first point. I talk to financial analysts all the time and frankly, it's been a long time since any of them asked me about click fraud. As far as a sensitive issue, there are a lot of other factors that financial analysts are looking at much closer when it comes to making recommendations on buying or selling Google stock. I believe click fraud has been already factored into the valuation and analysts have moved on.

When it comes to advertisers, there still is sensitivity around the click fraud issue, but it has lessened in the last year. The recent SEMPO study shows that as a concern for advertisers it actually trended down from 2005 to 2006. Certainly it's something we should be aware of and keeping our eye on, but I really don't believe it's preventing advertising revenue from flowing into Google at this particular point. So any short-term gain that might come to Google from falsely announcing numbers could potentially be a bit of a spike in their stock price. But within a day or a week other factors would smooth that out and it would basically become a nonissue. I really don't believe it would have any impact on advertisers at all. Short-term gain would be minimal at best.

But, the long-term cost to Google could be tremendous if they were caught releasing false numbers around click fraud. It would just be a really, really dumb thing to do, and you can say what you want about Google, but one thing they're not is dumb. So do I believe the numbers? Yes, I have no reason not to.

The other question that the reporters asked me was what I believed the number to be for undetected click fraud. One of the reporters was actually from BusinessWeek, and if you've read my blog you know that I've taken some exception to BusinessWeek's reporting around click fraud and search in the past. I did happen to mention that to the reporter I was talking to. The way I answered that question for BusinessWeek was that obviously we don't know what we don't know. Potentially there could be a lot of click fraud that slips through all of Google's filters and slips past the advertiser as well. But for it to do so it would have to be click fraud at a extremely sophisticated level. Let me explain why it's highly unlikely that there's a large percentage of undetected click fraud in Google's advertising network.

First of all Google has a number of signals they can watch to determine if click fraud is happening. Shuman mentioned that there's well over a hundred data points they look at, including overall ROI rates, impression rates, click stream activity, click patterns, IP detection and that's just a few of them. Also, Google is very, very good at building systems. Their engineers are the best in the world. So if they throw their collective brain power at a problem, you can be pretty confident that they're going to come up with a robust solution to that problem. Click fraud was one of the biggest threats that Google faced in the last few years. They knew they had to restore advertiser confidence around the click fraud issue. So they threw their full engineering horsepower at the problem to build the filters that they currently have in place. This is the first line of defense against click fraud. The vast majority of the invalid click activity that's happening in the Google network is caught by the filters. That's the first screen that this activity would have to pass through.

The second screen is Google's post-click review screen. This is where they look at questionable activity that made it through the proactive filters, do further investigation, and if they feel it's warranted, they will go back and make a refund to the advertiser without the advertiser having to take any action at all. Again this is a very robust program that Google has put in place. This represents the second screen that fraudulent activity would have to get through.

The third screen in the advertiser themselves. Think about this. We have a lot of very sophisticated advertisers who have put robust analytics in place and have a deep, inherent understanding of what their website traffic patterns should look like. These advertisers have also been exposed to the so-called reporting of click fraud, like the BusinessWeek expose. They have a heightened sensitivity to click fraud so they would be very vigilant, particularly on any traffic that was coming from Google. So undetected fraudulent activity would have to get past this screen as well.

Finally, as an overall metric, Google aggregates the conversion data from advertisers who have Google analytics in place and uses that as a baseline of what typical behavior across the network should look like. In aggregate form the data allows them to check out anomalies in the dataset that may indicate fraudulent activity. This level of detection is over and above all the other fraud detection I previously mentioned. It acts as a monitor on the overall activity that could potentially indicate undetected click fraud in the network. So the likelihood of there being a significant amount of undetected click fraud is very, very low. Once again, so low it's probably not worth spending much time worrying about.

The gist of my column today in SearchInsider is advising advertisers to look at a much bigger picture than just focusing on click fraud. I realized Google had to release these numbers because everyone was asking for them. If we can accept those numbers than perhaps we can get on with looking at our overall campaign performance and really spending some time on the things that would have a much greater impact on our overall return on investment. For example, the drum that I will continue to beat as long as anyone is willing to listen is for advertisers to focus on their own conversion rates. Time after time, I see landing pages that aren't optimized and aren't aligned to the intent of the potential visitor. I see sloppiness in advertising messages with a lack of relevancy aligned to the queries that are used. If advertisers paid more attention to these things they'd realize far greater benefit than they would by fretting over click fraud.

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